Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1057 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:06 → ORD 11:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1564 LAS 14:01 → ORD 19:38 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:06	ORD 11:48	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	13%	3%	0.3%	89%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	16%	5%	0.2%	89%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 09:03	ORD 14:46	16%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 23:30	ORD 05:11	16%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 726 United Flight history →	LAS 23:59	ORD 05:40	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 2020 American Flight history →	LAS 09:40	ORD 15:42	18%	5%	1.3%	90%
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:11	ORD 05:52	20%	6%	0.3%	85%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	LAS 00:59	ORD 06:45	20%	6%	0.3%	76%
AA 1592 American	LAS 09:56	ORD 15:33	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	23%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 2040 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	ORD 05:37	23%	6%	1.3%	67%
AA 3039 American Flight history →	LAS 12:33	ORD 18:44	30%	8%	1.2%	76%
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	30%	9%	0.6%	78%
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:44	ORD 18:25	33%	8%	0.6%	69%
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:13	ORD 05:45	35%	8%	1.0%	70%
AA 2013 American Flight history →	LAS 15:51	ORD 22:00	35%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 1520 American	LAS 17:52	ORD 23:29	35%	8%	1.8%	no record
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	39%	9%	0.6%	67%
AA 1564 American	LAS 14:01	ORD 19:38	41%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON