Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 366 LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 416 LAS 07:04 → PAE 09:36 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 366 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 19:50	PAE 22:30	20%	6%	0.8%	83%
AS 1572 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:00	PAE 09:38	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
AS 416 Alaska	LAS 07:04	PAE 09:36	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON