Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 1629 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 1629 LAS 07:00 → PDX 09:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 1105 LAS 14:30 → PDX 16:54 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:00	PDX 09:17	10%	2%	0.4%	98%
WN 2208 Southwest	LAS 09:10	PDX 11:30	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4132 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:20	PDX 11:40	11%	2%	0.4%	83%
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:20	PDX 10:41	11%	2%	0.6%	91%
AS 1345 Alaska	LAS 07:01	PDX 09:22	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 349 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:00	PDX 10:20	14%	2%	0.6%	72%
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	16%	3%	0.6%	90%
F9 1103 Frontier	LAS 09:25	PDX 11:54	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
AS 779 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:27	PDX 20:46	20%	7%	0.6%	82%
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	22%	4%	0.6%	80%
AS 752 Alaska	LAS 15:59	PDX 18:21	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 199 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	PDX 00:35	25%	5%	0.5%	38%
WN 2558 Southwest	LAS 18:50	PDX 21:11	33%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2126 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	PDX 16:55	35%	6%	0.4%	61%
F9 1105 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:30	PDX 16:54	37%	14%	1.0%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON