Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 437 at 23:20 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 437 LAS 23:20 → PHL 07:07 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1881 LAS 11:07 → PHL 19:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 437 American Flight history →	LAS 23:20	PHL 07:07	17%	6%	2.1%	87%
AA 2180 American	LAS 07:04	PHL 14:58	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1121 American Flight history →	LAS 22:15	PHL 06:04	20%	6%	2.2%	88%
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	26%	6%	1.3%	81%
AA 1614 American	LAS 10:03	PHL 17:51	28%	8%	1.8%	no record
F9 1602 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:13	PHL 06:00	33%	15%	1.3%	55%
AA 3160 American Flight history →	LAS 11:44	PHL 19:46	33%	10%	1.3%	50%
AA 1881 American	LAS 11:07	PHL 19:00	33%	9%	1.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:52DL 2834	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	6h 59m	94%	89%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 42m	94%	78%
Southwest Details →	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 15:20 → PHL 18:20WN 4948	7h 00m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON