Today: WN 2004 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–35%.

Safest bet today WN 2004 LAS 07:45 → PIT 14:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4491 LAS 13:05 → PIT 20:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2004 Southwest	LAS 07:45	PIT 14:52	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 869 Southwest	LAS 17:40	PIT 00:50	28%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4491 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:05	PIT 20:20	35%	7%	0.1%	31%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:30 → DEN 09:20WN 2966	1h 16m Denver	DEN 10:36 → PIT 15:38WN 1739	6h 08m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON