tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:18 am at Las Vegas)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 428 Southwest LAS 10:47 PSP 11:20 30% 5% 0.2% no record
WN 4651 Southwest LAS 22:33 PSP 23:40 30% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:50 → OAK 12:30WN 322 1h 35m Oakland OAK 14:05 → PSP 15:35WN 4199 4h 45m 93% 72%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:30 → PSP 21:01UA 2644 7h 25m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → PSP 21:34DL 4045 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 82% 70%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:15 → LAX 15:35UA 2184 3h 22m Los Angeles LAX 18:57 → PSP 20:01UA 5345 · flown by SkyWest 5h 46m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 97% 65%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 15:00 → DEN 18:00WN 1382 2h 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → PSP 22:15WN 3830 7h 15m 94% 64%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 13:30 → OAK 15:10WN 4488 1h 40m Oakland OAK 16:50 → PSP 18:25WN 2502 4h 55m 83% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:13 → PHX 14:29AA 1466 1h 09m Phoenix PHX 15:38 → PSP 16:58AA 3949 · flown by Envoy 3h 45m 68% 55%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 15:12 → SEA 17:57AS 698 1h 17m Seattle SEA 19:14 → PSP 22:03AS 3285 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 69% 44%
UnitedDetails → LAS 18:59 → LAX 20:29UA 5612 · flown by SkyWest 57m Los Angeles LAX 21:26 → PSP 22:30UA 5461 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m 55% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON