Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:34 pm at Las Vegas); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 822 at 22:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 822 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:19	RDU 05:46	17%	5%	0.2%	90%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 18:03 → LAX 19:23AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 22:49 → RDU 06:50 +1AA 1852	9h 47m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON