Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4939 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4939 LAS 06:35 → RNO 08:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4241 LAS 18:30 → RNO 20:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4939 Southwest	LAS 06:35	RNO 08:01	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2319 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:30	RNO 07:50	4%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 635 Southwest	LAS 07:50	RNO 09:16	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3179 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	RNO 08:55	7%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 2026 Southwest	LAS 09:26	RNO 10:52	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1007 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:05	RNO 11:30	13%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 4685 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:40	RNO 12:10	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
F9 4247 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:36	RNO 08:11	14%	3%	1.0%	75%
WN 579 Southwest	LAS 10:51	RNO 12:17	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5056 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:25	RNO 12:55	19%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 2477 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:45	RNO 22:15	20%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 652 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:35	RNO 14:05	21%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 287 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	RNO 23:40	21%	5%	0.6%	46%
WN 792 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:10	RNO 20:35	22%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 1221 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:15	RNO 14:45	23%	4%	0.6%	65%
WN 2385 Southwest	LAS 13:38	RNO 15:04	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2104 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:00	RNO 15:30	25%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 4610 Southwest	LAS 17:45	RNO 19:12	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2012 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	RNO 19:10	26%	6%	0.6%	50%
F9 4243 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:43	RNO 12:09	28%	8%	1.0%	67%
WN 4647 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:10	RNO 16:35	28%	5%	0.6%	64%
WN 2386 Southwest	LAS 15:38	RNO 17:04	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:30	RNO 20:02	33%	12%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON