Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2050 at 10:11 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2050 LAS 10:11 → SAT 14:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3418 LAS 15:43 → SAT 20:37 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2050 Southwest	LAS 10:11	SAT 14:54	20%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 3420 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:58	SAT 12:03	23%	6%	0.7%	74%
WN 4607 Southwest	LAS 11:41	SAT 16:23	25%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 2335 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:55	SAT 01:40	25%	6%	0.5%	42%
WN 4526 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	SAT 00:10	26%	5%	0.5%	58%
WN 2597 Southwest	LAS 16:08	SAT 20:50	35%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2334 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:15	SAT 19:55	37%	6%	0.4%	36%
F9 3418 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:43	SAT 20:37	38%	9%	0.7%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON