Today: WN 4612 at 22:45 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–35%.

Safest bet today WN 4612 LAS 22:45 → SBA 00:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2002 LAS 16:00 → SBA 17:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4612 Southwest	LAS 22:45	SBA 00:11	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 373 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	SBA 23:35	24%	6%	0.9%	48%
WN 4299 Southwest	LAS 17:25	SBA 18:51	33%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 2002 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	SBA 17:25	35%	8%	0.3%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON