Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:04 am at Las Vegas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2406 at 12:35, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2406 Southwest	LAS 12:35	SDF 19:14	29%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	99%	89%
United Details →	LAS 12:44 → ORD 18:25UA 314	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	8h 15m	99%	87%
American Details →	LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic	9h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	8h 14m	95%	83%
United Details →	LAS 09:03 → ORD 14:46UA 1672	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	8h 20m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → SDF 22:00WN 4597	7h 40m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711	3h 09m Houston	IAH 18:49 → SDF 22:15UA 4052 · flown by Mesa	8h 50m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	LAS 12:10 → BWI 19:50WN 235	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 22:30 → SDF 00:27 +1WN 2886	9h 17m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40UA 1731	51m Newark	EWR 21:31 → SDF 00:04 +1UA 3609 · flown by Republic	8h 29m	63%	51%
American Details →	LAS 12:25 → CLT 19:46AA 2981	58m Charlotte	CLT 20:44 → SDF 22:16AA 671	6h 51m	67%	40%
American Details →	LAS 12:38 → DFW 17:18AA 1482	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:12 → SDF 21:22AA 1211	5h 44m	56%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON