Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2368 LAS 18:20 → SEA 20:52 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:45	9%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SEA 08:32	14%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	20%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	20%	5%	0.7%	84%
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	23%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 479 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:22	SEA 10:05	24%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 1971 Southwest	LAS 09:05	SEA 11:35	24%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 739 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	SEA 10:25	25%	3%	0.5%	75%
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 09:41	SEA 12:12	25%	3%	0.6%	77%
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	26%	6%	0.8%	80%
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	26%	5%	0.8%	72%
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 15:12	SEA 17:57	27%	5%	0.6%	69%
AS 738 Alaska	LAS 15:54	SEA 18:26	30%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 17:05	SEA 19:37	33%	5%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 963 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	SEA 00:55	33%	6%	0.6%	46%
AS 1681 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:49	SEA 21:34	33%	6%	0.7%	52%
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:04	SEA 16:35	33%	4%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
F9 4203 Frontier	LAS 15:23	SEA 18:05	37%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1192 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:25	SEA 20:10	39%	8%	0.5%	54%
WN 2368 Southwest	LAS 18:20	SEA 20:52	46%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON