Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 643 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 643 LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 3801 LAS 18:00 → SFO 19:52 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 643 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SFO 07:35	7%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	21%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 1125 United	LAS 09:51	SFO 11:44	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3778 Southwest	LAS 08:25	SFO 10:02	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2841 United Flight history →	LAS 17:13	SFO 18:55	24%	9%	0.6%	65%
AS 613 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 22:05	SFO 23:42	24%	6%	0.8%	76%
F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	SFO 08:48	24%	6%	1.2%	76%
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SFO 13:12	25%	8%	0.5%	69%
WN 2934 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	SFO 09:10	25%	5%	0.7%	9%
UA 2615 United Flight history →	LAS 21:15	SFO 22:57	25%	9%	0.6%	23%
WN 2784 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:55	SFO 00:35	25%	9%	0.7%	40%
AS 570 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:02	SFO 11:43	27%	7%	0.7%	58%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	28%	9%	0.5%	57%
WN 4616 Southwest	LAS 11:55	SFO 13:33	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:03	SFO 19:41	28%	10%	0.7%	58%
WN 2343 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:20	SFO 13:55	30%	9%	0.6%	8%
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	30%	10%	0.6%	66%
F9 1849 Frontier	LAS 08:59	SFO 10:46	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2478 United Flight history →	LAS 14:52	SFO 16:34	31%	9%	0.5%	51%
WN 4397 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:05	SFO 21:35	31%	11%	0.6%	17%
UA 1267 United Flight history →	LAS 19:52	SFO 21:34	33%	11%	0.6%	40%
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:15	SFO 13:02	33%	11%	0.9%	52%
F9 3801 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:00	SFO 19:52	38%	13%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON