Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:14 am at Las Vegas); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G4 107 at 16:07, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G4 107 Allegiant	LAS 16:07	SGF 21:07	23%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:11 → SGF 23:34AA 3665 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	92%	77%
American Details →	LAS 09:27 → DFW 14:19AA 2797	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:36 → SGF 19:07AA 3797 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	100%	77%
United Details →	LAS 12:44 → ORD 18:25UA 314	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet	8h 43m	99%	76%
American Details →	LAS 12:38 → DFW 17:18AA 1482	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:23 → SGF 21:54AA 4092 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	97%	76%
American Details →	LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → SGF 19:17AA 3626 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	91%	73%
American Details →	LAS 09:36 → CLT 17:17AA 2030	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → SGF 21:34AA 4017 · flown by Envoy	9h 58m	96%	72%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy	8h 20m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10DL 1105	9h 29m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 12:47 → DFW 17:49AA 3285	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31AA 3671 · flown by Envoy	5h 44m	70%	51%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	58m Denver	DEN 17:38 → SGF 20:43UA 5886 · flown by SkyWest	5h 07m	74%	49%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10DL 1105	6h 58m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON