Today: WN 2279 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–38%.

Safest bet today WN 2279 LAS 07:10 → SJC 08:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5054 LAS 17:10 → SJC 18:40 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 2279 Southwest	LAS 07:10	SJC 08:48	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1160 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:10	SJC 08:40	5%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 439 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:55	SJC 11:30	10%	2%	0.2%	80%
WN 2415 Southwest	LAS 09:55	SJC 11:33	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2414 Southwest	LAS 10:55	SJC 12:33	12%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2419 Southwest	LAS 22:25	SJC 00:04	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2418 Southwest	LAS 21:25	SJC 23:04	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 704 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:00	SJC 22:35	19%	4%	0.5%	58%
WN 660 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	SJC 23:30	19%	5%	0.5%	60%
WN 2417 Southwest	LAS 20:15	SJC 21:54	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1242 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	SJC 13:45	21%	4%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
WN 2352 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:10	SJC 21:40	22%	5%	0.5%	70%
WN 2416 Southwest	LAS 17:43	SJC 19:22	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4223 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:45	SJC 14:20	24%	4%	0.2%	85%
WN 3865 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:35	SJC 21:05	24%	5%	0.5%	44%
WN 2189 Southwest	LAS 13:58	SJC 15:37	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
F9 4103 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:39	SJC 13:17	27%	10%	0.7%	78%
WN 2614 Southwest	LAS 16:15	SJC 17:53	35%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 5054 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:10	SJC 18:40	38%	9%	0.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON