Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4696 LAS 16:44 → SLC 19:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	5%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2957 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	SLC 10:00	11%	2%	0.4%	91%
WN 2422 Southwest	LAS 08:20	SLC 10:44	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	14%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:24	SLC 12:57	18%	8%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
WN 4225 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:25	SLC 22:55	23%	7%	0.5%	42%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	24%	8%	0.6%	77%
WN 1454 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:55	SLC 01:20	26%	6%	0.5%	27%
WN 2424 Southwest	LAS 19:00	SLC 21:26	28%	7%	0.5%	no record
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:55	SLC 22:15	28%	6%	0.7%	77%
WN 263 Southwest	LAS 13:39	SLC 16:05	30%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 3310 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:40	SLC 16:10	30%	5%	0.4%	70%
F9 4696 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:44	SLC 19:19	33%	13%	0.9%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON