Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2426 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2426 LAS 05:30 → SMF 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4143 LAS 17:10 → SMF 18:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2426 Southwest	LAS 05:30	SMF 07:07	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4589 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SMF 07:45	3%	1%	0.2%	97%
WN 843 Southwest	LAS 07:09	SMF 08:46	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2359 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SMF 08:45	8%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 1741 Southwest	LAS 09:17	SMF 10:54	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 860 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	SMF 10:05	11%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 1122 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:35	SMF 11:10	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 442 Southwest	LAS 10:32	SMF 12:09	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4226 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:40	SMF 00:20	16%	5%	0.6%	42%
WN 978 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:20	SMF 21:00	22%	8%	0.5%	35%
WN 2429 Southwest	LAS 11:57	SMF 13:35	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 4779 Frontier	LAS 10:10	SMF 11:56	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4032 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	SMF 20:05	26%	8%	0.5%	36%
WN 2064 Southwest	LAS 18:32	SMF 20:10	27%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1926 Southwest	LAS 13:43	SMF 15:20	30%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2430 Southwest	LAS 15:48	SMF 17:25	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1308 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:50	SMF 17:25	33%	6%	0.5%	58%
F9 4143 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:10	SMF 18:49	33%	13%	0.8%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON