Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2368 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2368 LAS 06:45 → STL 11:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2442 LAS 12:26 → STL 17:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2368 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:45	STL 11:55	6%	1%	0.4%	95%
WN 4693 Southwest	LAS 07:15	STL 12:27	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1409 Southwest	LAS 08:41	STL 13:52	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 3108 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:05	STL 11:27	15%	5%	0.9%	81%
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:00	STL 00:15	23%	6%	0.5%	38%
WN 2369 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:15	STL 16:30	26%	4%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
WN 3851 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:50	STL 19:05	27%	6%	0.4%	56%
WN 2442 Southwest	LAS 12:26	STL 17:39	30%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON