Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 553 LAS 14:21 → STS 16:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2407 LAS 14:55 → STS 16:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 553 Alaska	LAS 14:21	STS 16:06	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4051 Southwest	LAS 14:20	STS 16:07	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:55	STS 16:35	36%	7%	0.2%	27%
AS 2458 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 15:24	STS 17:16	20%	2%	3.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON