Today: WN 126 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet today WN 126 LAS 08:23 → TUL 13:03 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 89 LAS 12:24 → TUL 17:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 126 Southwest	LAS 08:23	TUL 13:03	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
G4 43 Allegiant	LAS 06:45	TUL 11:28	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4339 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:35	TUL 01:15	26%	7%	0.6%	35%
WN 2188 Southwest	LAS 17:40	TUL 22:20	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
G4 89 Allegiant	LAS 12:24	TUL 17:07	35%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON