Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: WN 519 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today WN 519 LAS 07:40 → TUS 09:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 951 LAS 15:15 → TUS 16:42 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 519 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	TUS 09:00	10%	2%	0.1%	91%
WN 2392 Southwest	LAS 07:45	TUS 09:12	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 354 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:00	TUS 23:30	25%	8%	0.5%	56%
WN 1638 Southwest	LAS 18:05	TUS 19:32	28%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 951 Southwest	LAS 15:15	TUS 16:42	30%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON