tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:33 am at Los Angeles); 4 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: OO 130 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet today OO 130 LAX 08:38 → ABQ 11:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2456 LAX 20:35 → ABQ 23:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.
OO 130 SkyWest LAX 08:38 ABQ 11:45 15% 6% 0.2% no record
OO 6440 SkyWest LAX 09:02 ABQ 12:04 18% 7% 0.2% no record
DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:47 ABQ 23:48 23% 8% 0.6% 90%worse than usual
WN 1916 Southwest Flight history → LAX 22:00 ABQ 00:55 25% 7% 0.4% 42%
WN 2455 Southwest LAX 11:35 ABQ 14:37 25% 4% 0.1% no record
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 15:00 ABQ 18:07 26% 7% 0.2% 85%worse than usual
OO 296 SkyWest LAX 20:21 ABQ 23:26 28% 7% 0.2% no record
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:08 ABQ 23:09 29% 6% 0.2% 81%
WN 2456 Southwest LAX 20:35 ABQ 23:38 30% 9% 0.4% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON