tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at Los Angeles); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 18:03, 36% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1899 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:31 ANC 23:55 31% 9% 0.4% 81%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:29 → SFO 15:07UA 469 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:46UA 1594 10h 17m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:00 → HNL 20:53AS 809 2h 20m Honolulu HNL 23:13 → ANC 07:07 +1AS 49 14h 07m 87% 67%
DeltaDetails → LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 37m 83% 66%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:25 → SFO 17:47AS 1610 2h 00m San Francisco SFO 19:47 → ANC 23:41AS 212 8h 16m 94% 59%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:03 → SEA 20:45AS 698 3h 14m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363 9h 37m 100% 54%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 1h 11m Denver DEN 19:11 → ANC 22:59UA 280 9h 29m 79% 54%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:00 → SEA 18:32AS 585 3h 25m Seattle SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560 9h 41m 100% 43%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 17:00 → SEA 19:32AS 1305 3h 21m Seattle SEA 22:53 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703 9h 36m 97% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58AS 1368 55m Seattle SEA 22:53 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703 7h 27m 31% 13%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:25 → SEA 19:11AS 1375 53m Seattle SEA 20:04 → ANC 22:46AS 1336 7h 21m 24% 8%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 17:00 → SEA 19:32AS 1305 53m Seattle SEA 20:25 → ANC 23:08AS 667 7h 08m 18% 6%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON