Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: UA 4700 at 10:17, 26%.

Safest bet today UA 4700 LAX 10:17 → ASE 13:38 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 3704 LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4700 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:17	ASE 13:38	26%	11%	0.8%	79%
AA 6387 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:43	ASE 15:59	28%	10%	0.8%	66%
UA 5786 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:52	ASE 21:18	29%	11%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
OO 5750 SkyWest	LAX 10:32	ASE 13:54	30%	12%	0.8%	no record
DL 3704 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:12	ASE 20:25	31%	11%	1.1%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON