Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 271 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 271 LAX 05:00 → AUS 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2118 LAX 18:52 → AUS 23:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 271 Southwest	LAX 05:00	AUS 10:05	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2379 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:35	AUS 11:30	9%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:23	AUS 13:32	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 267 Southwest	LAX 07:50	AUS 12:54	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5445 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:09	AUS 13:29	15%	6%	0.5%	90%
WN 2251 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 08:55	AUS 13:50	17%	3%	0.5%	64%
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:14	AUS 14:30	18%	7%	0.5%	86%
OO 6443 SkyWest	LAX 09:04	AUS 14:21	19%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:55	AUS 16:06	19%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	20%	6%	0.6%	78%
AA 4979 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:31	AUS 21:44	20%	9%	0.6%	81%
UA 5456 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:45	AUS 23:59	23%	9%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	24%	9%	0.6%	73%
WN 255 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:10	AUS 21:10	36%	9%	0.5%	35%
AA 2118 American Flight history →	LAX 18:52	AUS 23:55	41%	12%	0.9%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON