Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4492 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4492 LAX 05:05 → BNA 11:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1484 LAX 10:41 → BNA 16:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4492 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:05	BNA 11:10	5%	1%	0.5%	86%
DL 768 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	BNA 12:06	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 2461 Southwest	LAX 05:05	BNA 11:01	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 449 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:15	BNA 18:24	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 858 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:31	BNA 00:33	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
AA 2149 American Flight history →	LAX 23:59	BNA 06:08	18%	6%	0.8%	90%
AA 1100 American	LAX 10:32	BNA 16:31	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1484 American Flight history →	LAX 10:41	BNA 16:54	28%	9%	0.7%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 07:10 → MCI 12:20WN 4892	1h 05m Kansas City	MCI 13:25 → BNA 15:00WN 2533	5h 50m	93%	82%
Southwest Details →	LAX 06:35 → STL 12:10WN 4900	55m St Louis	STL 13:05 → BNA 14:20WN 1577	5h 45m	91%	80%
Southwest Details →	LAX 07:50 → DAL 12:50WN 1362	50m Dallas	DAL 13:40 → BNA 15:30WN 526	5h 40m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON