Today: AS 3393 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet today AS 3393 LAX 07:00 → BOI 10:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 4148 LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3393 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:00	BOI 10:12	10%	4%	0.2%	96%
DL 3773 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:44	BOI 14:46	20%	6%	0.2%	89%
UA 5363 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:57	BOI 22:05	20%	9%	0.6%	89%
OO 3010 SkyWest	LAX 19:47	BOI 22:56	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 4148 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:59	BOI 22:58	22%	8%	0.6%	87%
AS 2201 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 19:45	BOI 22:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON