Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 382 LAX 15:13 → BOS 23:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	7%	3%	0.6%	83%
B6 888 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	BOS 14:37	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 08:36	BOS 17:21	14%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 2210 United Flight history →	LAX 23:59	BOS 08:40	14%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 507 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	BOS 05:30	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	16%	6%	0.6%	70%
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	19%	5%	1.3%	78%
DL 2166 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:20	BOS 23:51	20%	8%	0.6%	78%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:45	BOS 19:20	20%	8%	0.6%	71%
AA 2713 American	LAX 09:57	BOS 18:24	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:59	BOS 18:42	24%	9%	0.7%	81%
AA 2453 American Flight history →	LAX 23:59	BOS 08:35	25%	5%	1.3%	81%
B6 488 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:12	BOS 06:51	25%	10%	0.7%	72%
B6 2088 JetBlue	LAX 12:41	BOS 21:16	26%	13%	0.6%	no record
B6 1388 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:59	BOS 19:42	26%	12%	0.7%	68%
B6 188 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	BOS 22:36	26%	13%	0.7%	74%
AA 1805 American Flight history →	LAX 15:05	BOS 23:43	28%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	BOS 18:40	28%	10%	1.2%	53%
AA 382 American Flight history →	LAX 15:13	BOS 23:40	30%	9%	1.2%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:00 → MSP 05:28DL 430	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 45m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:14 → JFK 08:17DL 915	1h 33m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:15DL 5733 · flown by Republic	8h 01m	96%	88%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON