tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 492 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 23:35 BUF 07:29 38% 16% 0.9% 53%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 38m Dulles IAD 22:26 → BUF 23:59UA 3516 · flown by Republic 10h 20m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → BUF 15:30WN 1655 7h 20m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:25 → ORD 06:02UA 1962 1h 13m Chicago ORD 07:15 → BUF 10:00UA 2753 6h 35m 92% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 28m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 8h 31m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → BOS 16:38AA 12 3h 27m Boston BOS 20:05 → BUF 21:55AA 4616 · flown by Republic 10h 55m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 08m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:05 → BNA 11:10WN 4492 3h 04m Nashville BNA 14:14 → BUF 17:05WN 420 9h 00m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:00 → BOS 18:40AA 1691 1h 25m Boston BOS 20:05 → BUF 21:55AA 4616 · flown by Republic 8h 55m 56% 46%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 51m Chicago ORD 17:55 → BUF 20:32UA 1335 6h 47m 50% 37%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 10:49 → FLL 19:02B6 1700 52m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:54 → BUF 23:00B6 866 9h 11m 44% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON