Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2315 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2315 LAX 08:27 → CLE 16:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1352 LAX 10:01 → CLE 17:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2315 United	LAX 08:27	CLE 16:04	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2641 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLE 06:10	10%	8%	0.5%	90%
AA 650 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	CLE 17:53	25%	9%	1.3%	87%worse than usual
AA 1352 American	LAX 10:01	CLE 17:41	25%	8%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:15 → CLE 14:25WN 1813	6h 15m	98%	89%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:08DL 1083	6h 38m	92%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON