Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1208 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1208 LAX 06:00 → CLT 13:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest AA 1159 LAX 11:00 → CLT 19:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1208 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	CLT 13:59	10%	3%	2.1%	99%
AA 469 American	LAX 06:06	CLT 13:53	14%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	15%	4%	2.1%	94%
AA 2199 American Flight history →	LAX 21:41	CLT 05:24	18%	5%	1.8%	86%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	LAX 09:24	CLT 17:26	24%	6%	1.3%	77%
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	24%	6%	1.6%	77%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	LAX 09:30	CLT 17:12	25%	6%	1.3%	76%
AA 2070 American	LAX 11:12	CLT 18:55	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 535 American	LAX 13:07	CLT 20:46	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1988 American Flight history →	LAX 13:58	CLT 21:55	30%	10%	1.3%	72%
AA 1159 American Flight history →	LAX 11:00	CLT 19:00	31%	9%	1.3%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	48m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → CLT 10:24DL 1827	6h 54m	83%	78%
American Details →	LAX 20:41 → PHX 22:09AA 2293	1h 26m Phoenix	PHX 23:35 → CLT 06:35 +1AA 849	6h 54m	88%	73%
Southwest Details →	LAX 10:45 → DAL 15:45WN 1263	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 17:05 → CLT 20:35WN 4299	6h 50m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON