Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1686 LAX 09:21 → CMH 17:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1360 LAX 10:37 → CMH 17:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	LAX 09:21	CMH 17:01	20%	6%	0.4%	82%
UA 2251 United	LAX 10:34	CMH 18:13	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 1692 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	CMH 18:15	23%	6%	0.2%	79%
AA 1360 American	LAX 10:37	CMH 17:50	26%	8%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 11:10 → LAS 12:25WN 991	1h 07m Las Vegas	LAS 13:32 → CMH 20:25WN 4750	6h 15m	83%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON