Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:38 am at Los Angeles)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 458 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:45	CVG 05:59	16%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 12:21 → ORD 18:33AA 2891	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic	9h 32m	100%	92%
American Details →	LAX 09:30 → ORD 15:59AA 2608	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy	9h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 56m	99%	86%
American Details →	LAX 08:00 → MIA 16:19AA 345	3h 26m Miami	MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy	11h 35m	99%	85%
United Details →	LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667	3h 29m Dulles	IAD 22:17 → CVG 23:59UA 3521 · flown by Republic	10h 20m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291	8h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → CVG 19:01DL 2149	8h 46m	98%	83%
American Details →	LAX 11:40 → ORD 18:12AA 1050	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:02 → CVG 23:26AA 3366 · flown by Envoy	8h 46m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 12:21 → ORD 18:33AA 2891	56m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	61%	53%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	55m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → CVG 23:51UA 1030	6h 25m	60%	46%
American Details →	LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:14AA 2041	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → CVG 23:27AA 1266	6h 34m	60%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON