Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 199 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 199 LAX 05:10 → DAL 10:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4306 LAX 14:55 → DAL 20:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 199 Southwest	LAX 05:10	DAL 10:16	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:00	DAL 10:05	7%	1%	0.5%	80%
WN 2466 Southwest	LAX 00:50	DAL 05:56	11%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2294 Southwest	LAX 07:40	DAL 12:45	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1362 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 07:50	DAL 12:50	13%	2%	0.5%	44%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:45	DAL 15:45	28%	4%	0.5%	28%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:50	DAL 22:55	30%	10%	0.5%	15%
WN 4306 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:55	DAL 20:00	33%	8%	0.5%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON