Today: DL 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet today DL 392 LAX 07:30 → DCA 15:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	11%	4%	0.2%	81%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	14%	4%	0.1%	83%
AA 3202 American	LAX 08:37	DCA 16:44	15%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	21%	6%	0.1%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	27%	9%	0.5%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 06:35 → STL 12:10WN 4900	1h 05m St Louis	STL 13:15 → DCA 16:25WN 3522	6h 50m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	7h 25m	100%	82%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON