Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2399 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2399 LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 802 LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2399 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:30	DTW 12:56	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 733 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	DTW 14:40	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 494 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:45	DTW 17:08	13%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 708 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:50	DTW 23:19	15%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 407 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:20	DTW 05:43	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 802 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:50	DTW 19:14	20%	4%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	6h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 24m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 20m	90%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON