Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4905 at 18:30, 26%.

Safest bet today AA 4905 LAX 18:30 → ELP 21:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 2396 LAX 21:45 → ELP 00:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4905 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:30	ELP 21:34	26%	10%	0.3%	78%
OO 6326 SkyWest	LAX 20:33	ELP 23:40	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 2460 Southwest	LAX 20:15	ELP 23:21	44%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:45	ELP 00:45	46%	10%	0.2%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON