Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1874 LAX 10:55 → EWR 19:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1403 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	EWR 14:37	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	8%	4%	0.7%	94%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:03	EWR 15:08	14%	5%	0.9%	90%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	EWR 16:45	15%	6%	0.7%	83%
UA 2303 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	EWR 07:30	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 2397 United Flight history →	LAX 21:00	EWR 05:18	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 233 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:35	EWR 17:13	19%	5%	0.9%	89%
UA 1700 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	EWR 00:44	20%	8%	0.7%	84%
UA 2227 United Flight history →	LAX 12:15	EWR 20:49	24%	12%	0.7%	75%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	25%	12%	0.7%	72%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	25%	12%	0.7%	72%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	25%	8%	0.8%	83%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	28%	12%	0.7%	62%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:55	EWR 19:28	33%	10%	0.8%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 19m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	97%	72%
United Details →	LAX 21:22 → PHX 22:59UA 5458 · flown by SkyWest	58m Phoenix	PHX 23:57 → EWR 07:41 +1UA 2078	7h 19m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON