Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 32–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 6019 LAX 21:02 → FAT 22:17 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1754 LAX 18:48 → FAT 19:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OO 6019 SkyWest	LAX 21:02	FAT 22:17	32%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 5329 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:31	FAT 22:44	33%	11%	0.3%	73%
UA 1754 United	LAX 18:48	FAT 19:59	37%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON