Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 477 at 22:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 477 LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 1400 LAX 20:40 → FLL 05:02 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:45	FLL 17:08	18%	6%	0.6%	75%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	22%	9%	0.6%	87%
B6 100 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:05	FLL 20:25	23%	9%	0.6%	72%
B6 700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:35	FLL 07:56	25%	9%	0.6%	81%
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	26%	10%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 23m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	7h 31m	97%	88%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	54m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	7h 08m	94%	80%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → FLL 10:53AA 1866	7h 22m	90%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON