Today: AS 3351 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet today AS 3351 LAX 08:26 → GEG 11:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 1614 LAX 19:45 → GEG 22:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3351 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:26	GEG 11:11	11%	4%	0.1%	96%
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:00	GEG 15:35	21%	6%	0.1%	94%worse than usual
DL 3576 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:25	GEG 00:02	22%	8%	0.6%	86%
AS 1614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:45	GEG 22:15	22%	6%	0.6%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON