Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2399 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2399 LAX 05:10 → HOU 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4858 LAX 18:50 → HOU 00:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2399 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:10	HOU 10:30	5%	1%	0.5%	88%
WN 572 Southwest	LAX 05:05	HOU 10:27	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2480 Southwest	LAX 00:40	HOU 06:02	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2402 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 23:40	HOU 05:00	22%	5%	0.5%	67%
WN 3225 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	HOU 19:35	28%	6%	0.5%	24%
WN 4858 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	HOU 00:10	33%	8%	0.5%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON