Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2081 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2081 LAX 06:00 → IAD 14:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1200 LAX 21:01 → IAD 05:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2081 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	IAD 14:08	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	IAD 07:33	13%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1573 United Flight history →	LAX 16:49	IAD 00:55	13%	6%	0.7%	92%
UA 349 United Flight history →	LAX 22:41	IAD 06:47	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1635 United Flight history →	LAX 12:43	IAD 20:48	15%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	16%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:28	IAD 21:38	16%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AA 1200 American Flight history →	LAX 21:01	IAD 05:00	22%	8%	0.9%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 19m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	48m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	82%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON