Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OO 4923 LAX 09:23 → IAH 14:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	LAX 07:05	IAH 12:34	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 387 United Flight history →	LAX 19:21	IAH 00:50	12%	8%	0.6%	91%
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:49	13%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 2403 United Flight history →	LAX 17:45	IAH 23:14	13%	8%	0.6%	82%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2086 United Flight history →	LAX 11:54	IAH 17:22	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1591 United Flight history →	LAX 13:10	IAH 18:39	15%	6%	0.6%	73%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:11	IAH 11:40	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	IAH 19:43	17%	8%	0.6%	77%
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:35	IAH 23:59	18%	7%	0.6%	85%
OO 4923 SkyWest	LAX 09:23	IAH 14:49	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON