tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:23 pm at Los Angeles); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: American via O'Hare, leaving 13:54, 48% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 635 American Flight history → LAX 16:54 IND 23:59 46% 12% 0.2% 62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 18:45 → SFO 20:10UA 2681 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 23:34 → IND 07:09 +1UA 1726 9h 24m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 20:10 → SFO 21:38UA 1195 1h 27m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477 7h 28m 76% 61%
DeltaDetails → LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 7h 26m 79% 59%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 13:35 → BWI 21:35WN 2384 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 22:55 → IND 00:51 +1WN 1020 8h 16m 81% 54%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 14:10 → HOU 19:35WN 3225 1h 20m Houston HOU 20:55 → IND 00:20 +1WN 1989 7h 10m 75% 54%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:03 → SEA 20:45AS 698 1h 54m Seattle SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624 8h 41m 100% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:54 → ORD 19:30AA 1998 1h 14m Chicago ORD 20:44 → IND 22:59AA 4638 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 52% 48%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 13:35 → BWI 21:35WN 2384 50m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → IND 00:20 +1WN 4216 7h 45m 49% 33%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 16:55 → PHX 18:25WN 193 50m Phoenix PHX 19:15 → IND 01:45 +1WN 3231 5h 50m 48% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON