Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 35 nonstops

Today: WN 2403 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–37%.

Safest bet today WN 2403 LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 991 LAX 11:10 → LAS 12:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2403 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:20	LAS 06:35	5%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2483 Southwest	LAX 05:46	LAS 06:58	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	LAS 09:42	15%	5%	0.2%	91%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	16%	4%	0.3%	95%worse than usual
WN 2061 Southwest	LAX 07:26	LAS 08:44	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	LAX 22:59	LAS 00:21	17%	9%	0.6%	85%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	17%	8%	0.4%	97%worse than usual
DL 2653 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:25	LAS 22:45	22%	6%	0.7%	79%
WN 2493 Southwest	LAX 08:47	LAS 10:04	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	LAS 14:34	22%	9%	0.6%	83%
WN 4410 Southwest	LAX 22:45	LAS 00:03	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 679 United Flight history →	LAX 18:59	LAS 20:21	25%	10%	0.6%	81%
WN 1329 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:30	LAS 23:55	25%	7%	0.6%	58%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	26%	8%	0.7%	69%
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:46	LAS 14:59	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 2202 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:55	LAS 21:04	30%	9%	0.7%	74%
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	30%	13%	0.8%	80%
WN 1222 Southwest	LAX 15:10	LAS 16:27	30%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2404 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	LAS 19:35	31%	10%	0.6%	50%
WN 287 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:20	LAS 21:35	31%	9%	0.6%	48%
AA 6190 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:04	LAS 17:24	31%	14%	0.7%	72%
WN 2485 Southwest	LAX 18:05	LAS 19:22	32%	10%	0.6%	no record
F9 2334 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 21:09	LAS 22:32	32%	16%	0.9%	43%
WN 1571 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	LAS 18:15	33%	10%	0.6%	34%
AA 2218 American	LAX 12:13	LAS 13:31	33%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 2039 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	LAS 13:45	33%	16%	0.8%	66%
F9 2264 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 22:00	LAS 23:21	33%	15%	0.9%	66%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	33%	11%	0.3%	77%worse than usual
WN 2368 Southwest	LAX 16:30	LAS 17:42	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 1184 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:40	LAS 16:01	35%	16%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
OO 718 SkyWest	LAX 16:41	LAS 17:55	36%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 20:15	LAS 21:33	37%	16%	0.9%	72%
AA 1522 American	LAX 19:25	LAS 20:44	37%	16%	1.0%	no record
WN 1660 Southwest	LAX 11:17	LAS 12:35	38%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 991 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:10	LAS 12:25	39%	10%	0.2%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON