tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:00 → MSP 05:29DL 430 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 7h 44m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 10h 15m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 53m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:40UA 2133 8h 49m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729 1h 28m Chicago ORD 08:00 → LGA 11:17UA 2092 8h 04m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:17AA 2490 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 9h 09m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 29m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 36m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 50m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 57% 25%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:40 → MIA 19:00AA 3016 49m Miami MIA 19:49 → LGA 22:59AA 2262 9h 19m 56% 24%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 51m Chicago ORD 17:55 → LGA 21:03UA 2458 7h 18m 61% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON