Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 4146 LAX 23:00 → MCO 07:13 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	13%	4%	1.2%	84%
DL 547 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:27	MCO 06:25	15%	4%	1.2%	79%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MCO 07:03	16%	5%	0.7%	90%
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	19%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 1118 American Flight history →	LAX 21:55	MCO 05:56	19%	6%	0.8%	82%
WN 2409 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:05	MCO 06:00	20%	6%	0.7%	64%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	25%	6%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:42	30%	7%	1.2%	69%
AA 2192 American Flight history →	LAX 13:54	MCO 21:59	31%	12%	0.8%	54%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	34%	10%	0.9%	69%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	39%	14%	2.1%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	94%	85%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:05 → PHX 06:30WN 116	1h 31m Phoenix	PHX 08:01 → MCO 15:12WN 1431	7h 07m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662	7h 19m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON