Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3403 LAX 12:04 → MFR 14:09 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3321 LAX 19:57 → MFR 22:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3403 SkyWest	LAX 12:04	MFR 14:09	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3321 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:57	MFR 22:02	12%	6%	0.7%	88%
AS 2328 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 13:15	MFR 15:14	6%	2%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON