Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1110 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1110 LAX 06:32 → MIA 14:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3124 LAX 12:25 → MIA 20:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1110 American Flight history →	LAX 06:32	MIA 14:43	10%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 315 American Flight history →	LAX 06:30	MIA 14:49	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2460 American	LAX 08:11	MIA 16:14	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	14%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 2289 American Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MIA 07:18	15%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1221 American Flight history →	LAX 22:00	MIA 06:14	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 2942 American Flight history →	LAX 20:52	MIA 05:01	19%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 320 American	LAX 15:45	MIA 23:52	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3016 American Flight history →	LAX 10:40	MIA 19:00	25%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 3124 American Flight history →	LAX 12:25	MIA 20:45	25%	8%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	7h 21m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:00 → DAL 10:05WN 4128	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 20m	96%	78%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	48m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 02m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON